2026 Theme

The Year of Resilience.

In 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closure, a Super El Niño, and accelerating compliance mandates have landed simultaneously. Resilience is no longer a framework — it is the operating context.

Why 2026 is a genuine stress test

A Strait of Hormuz closure, a Super El Niño, and cascading compliance mandates have landed simultaneously across ASEAN. The green economy's case no longer rests on climate alone — it is now an energy security argument, a food security argument, and an industrial competitiveness argument at once. Among the 1,150 startups and SMEs mapped in this Landscape, a clear role emerges: they are the integration layer of the transition — and in 2026, that integration work is no longer optional.

We assess every top story in this Landscape across three dimensions of resilience.

Climate Resilience

The capacity of ecosystems and communities to withstand physical shocks — from extreme heat and flooding to storm surges and crop loss. Measured by how directly an innovation addresses physical climate exposure.

Economic Resilience

Reduced dependence on fragile supply chains and imported inputs — from fossil fuels and fertilisers to food and critical minerals. Measured by how much an innovation cuts import exposure or builds self-sufficiency.

Context: the 2026 shocks

The Strait of Hormuz closure in February 2026 pushed nitrogen fertiliser prices up 30%+ and exposed ASEAN's structural dependence on imported fossil fuels. A Super El Niño is intensifying through H2 2026, threatening yields across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Both shocks land together — not sequentially — making 2026 a genuine test of the region's resilience across all three dimensions.

How we score resilience

For every top story surfaced in each sector profile, we assign a score of one to three stars across all three resilience dimensions, then order stories first by climate resilience, then economic, then social. Here's exactly what separates a ★★★ from a ★ rating.

Climate Resilience

Adaptation, not mitigation — more than a story about enabling clean energy or cutting emissions. Specifically: does it harden something or someone against a physical shock?

★★★Directly increases the ability of infrastructure, ecosystems, or communities to withstand a specific physical hazard.

★★★Some incidental contribution to shock resilience without being built for that purpose.

★★★Little or no connection to withstanding physical shocks, even if the story is otherwise a strong decarbonisation play.

Economic Resilience

Not capital mobilisation or trade competitiveness in general. Specifically: does it reduce reliance on something imported or supply-chain fragile?

★★★Directly displaces imported fuel, materials, or components with domestic or regional alternatives.

★★★Some import-substitution effect, but mixed in with other, larger economic goals that are not about dependence.

★★★Little or no meaningful link to import or supply-chain dependence.

Social Resilience

Specifically: is it about livelihoods, jobs, and whether communities are stabilised or disrupted?

★★★Clear livelihood or community-stability effect — for example, job creation tied to the transition, with no evident displacement risk.

★★★Mixed or indirect effect on livelihoods, or a displacement risk that is not clear.

★★★Little or no connection to livelihoods or community stability either way.

You'll see these ratings on every top story across the seven sector profiles — start with Nature, Agriculture & Food, the largest sector this year.